Commerzbank puts the chances of a Grexit at 50%
In a research note released today, Commerzbank, the global banking and financial services company based in Frankfurt, attempts to answer some of the critical questions with regard to the stalemate Greece and Eurozone have found themselves in, following yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting.
According to a Handelsblatt article, the banking company puts the chances of a Greek leaving the euro zone at 50% compared to 25% a week ago.
Jacques Delors Institute – a joint project by the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin and Notre Europe/Jacques Delors Institute in Paris – also explores the possibility of a Greek leaving the euro zone in an article titled “Grexit? Beware of Slippery slopes”
The article presents three possible scenarios that could end with a Grexit:
1. Greece ‘jumps’: The country decides to introduce a parallel currency
2. The Eurozone and the ECB decide to push Greece out of the euro, restricting access to liquidity.
3. Grexit by accident: Brinkmanship on both sides leads to a bank run, leaving no other alternative.